PuckSleuth
37

Not on an NHL roster · Center · Shoots L

Justin Dowling

Age 36 · 5'11" · 178 lb · Born in Calgary, CAN

Cap hit

$850K

0.8% of $104M cap

Term

1 yr

Through 2026-27, then UFA

Clause

None

Surplus value

+$972K

vs. $1.822M market estimate

Contract details from our records; public announcement not yet matched

2025-26 regular season

GP

2

Goals

0

0.0% shooting

Assists

0

0 primary

Points

0

0.00 per game

TOI/GP

7:12

PP 0:00 · PK 0:00

xGF%

32.9

5v5, -13.7 vs. last yr

Game Score

-0.14

per game, goals above average

Faceoff %

—

1 W · 2 L

Plus/minus

-1

Blocks 1 · Hits 3

Game log

Last 5 games · NHL API

GameGASOGHITBLKTOIPPPKFOOZS%GVTK+/-GS
Jan 5
vs UTA · OTL 3-2
001217:180:000:001-0000-1-0.18
Jan 2
@ FLA · W 5-1
000107:050:000:000-2—000-0.10
Apr 29
@ CAR · OTL 5-4
0002110:420:000:005-325000-0.11
Apr 27
vs CAR · L 5-2
0002010:010:040:004-625000-0.18
Apr 25
vs CAR · W 3-2
0003010:540:000:004-767000-0.13

GS = our Game Score, goals above average. FO = faceoffs won-lost. OZS% = share of his 5v5 offensive and defensive zone faceoff starts that were in the offensive zone. GV/TK = giveaways/takeaways.

Advanced metrics

5v5 unless noted · 2024-25 · 499 min · percentile vs. NHL forwards

xGF%46.6%

30th percentile

Relative xGF%-7.4

11th percentile

HDCF%46.8%

36th percentile

CF%47.5%

30th percentile

Relative CF%-4.8

13th percentile

FF%48.8%

41st percentile

GF%39.3%

17th percentile

CF/6049.6

13th percentile

CA/6054.9

79th percentile

ixG/600.44

4th percentile

Goals above expected-1.6

35th percentile

IPP54.5%

18th percentile

PDO97.4

19th percentile

OZS%65.0%

85th percentile

xGF% is his team's share of 5v5 expected goals while he was on the ice, from our own expected goals model; HDCF% counts only high-danger chances (xG of 0.15 or more). IPP is the share of his team's 5v5 goals while he was on the ice that he scored or assisted on. Relative stats compare him with his team when he was off the ice. Goals above expected and ixG/60 use his own shots at all strengths. PDO and OZS% describe luck and deployment, so their bars are grey.

Play style

Trait percentiles vs. NHL centers · 2024-25

Shooting volume
21
Playmaking
9
Zone entries(est.)
—
Forechecking
—
Physicality
61
Defensive impact
66
Puck management
49
Speed
—

Where he shoots from

No unblocked shots yet.

Watch-outs

  • Playmaking: 9th percentile among centers.
  • Shooting volume: 21st percentile among centers.

Similar style: Sam Lafferty, Peyton Krebs (BUF)

Built from play-by-play, shift data, and NHL EDGE tracking. Zone entries is an estimate (rush chances while he is on the ice) until tracking data is added. A written scouting summary appears once Claude play-style writing is switched on.

Where his Game Score comes from

2024-25 · 52 GP · goals above average

Season total -4.4 goals, or -0.08 per game.

Even strength offense
-1.0
Even strength defense
+0.6
Penalty kill
-0.1
Finishing
-1.6
Playmaking
-2.1
Faceoffs
-0.1

Game Score adds up a player's impact in goals compared with an average player given the same ice time: his share of expected goals for and against at even strength, on the power play, and on the penalty kill, plus finishing (goals minus expected goals), primary assists, penalties drawn and taken, and faceoffs. Goalies are measured by goals saved above expected.

By season

Regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/-SOGTOI/GPFO%GS/GP
2025-26NYR2000-117:12—-0.14
2024-25NJD52257-63410:1348.3%-0.08
2023-24NJD2101-2310:32—+0.16

Sentiment & chatter

Fans

—

Beat writers

—

Media

—

Fan, beat writer, and media scores, the 14-day trade chatter chart, and the latest mentions appear once sentiment scoring is switched on. Mentions are already being collected.

Age curve

NHL forwards · production index

202937

At 36, forwards typically produce 49% of their peak (age 24).

From 24 seasons of NHL results, adjusted for league scoring and save percentage in each era. Shaded bars are the seasons left on his contract.

Skating · NHL EDGE

2025-26, as of Oct 2

Top speed
20.3 mph
3rd pct
20+ mph bursts
1
Hardest shot
32.9 mph
0th pct
Distance
2.6 mi
OZ time
38.1%
8th pct
DZ time
41.9%