Toronto Maple Leafs · Right wing · Shoots R

Kirill Marchenko

Age 26 · 6'3" · 201 lb · Born in Barnaul, RUS

Cap hit

$3.85M

3.7% of $104M cap

Term

1 yr

Through 2026-27, then RFA

Clause

None

Surplus value

+$5.391M

vs. $9.241M market estimate

Confirmed by the public signing announcement · source

2026-27 regular season

Goals

0.0% shooting

Assists

0 primary

Points

0.50 per game

TOI/GP

19:12

PP 4:04 · PK 0:00

xGF%

78.1

5v5, +26.4 vs. last yr

Game Score

-0.65

per game, goals above average

Faceoff %

—

Plus/minus

Blocks 0 · Hits 6

Game log

Last 5 games · NHL API

Game	G	A	SOG	HIT	BLK	TOI	PP	PK	FO	OZS%	GV	TK	+/-	GS
Sep 30 vs NYI · W 2-1	0	0	3	4	0	18:16	4:43	0:00	—	67	1	0	-1	-0.69
Sep 29 vs MTL · L 3-2	0	1	4	2	0	20:08	3:25	0:00	—	100	1	0	+1	-0.61
Apr 14 vs WSH · L 2-1	0	0	4	0	0	19:00	1:36	0:02	—	100	5	2	0	-0.74
Apr 12 vs BOS · L 3-2	0	0	3	5	0	22:28	5:29	0:00	—	80	2	0	-1	-0.62
Apr 11 @ MTL · W 5-2	1	1	4	1	1	17:12	4:57	0:00	—	33	1	1	+1	+1.07

GS = our Game Score, goals above average. FO = faceoffs won-lost. OZS% = share of his 5v5 offensive and defensive zone faceoff starts that were in the offensive zone. GV/TK = giveaways/takeaways.

Advanced metrics

5v5 unless noted · 2025-26 · 1,102 min · percentile vs. NHL forwards

xGF%51.6%

68th percentile

Relative xGF%-0.1

50th percentile

HDCF%49.2%

50th percentile

CF%52.4%

77th percentile

Relative CF%+2.3

80th percentile

FF%52.3%

75th percentile

GF%58.0%

86th percentile

CF/6063.7

86th percentile

CA/6057.9

48th percentile

ixG/601.41

82nd percentile

Goals above expected+1.2

73rd percentile

IPP70.6%

69th percentile

PDO102.4

81st percentile

OZS%73.4%

97th percentile

xGF% is his team's share of 5v5 expected goals while he was on the ice, from our own expected goals model; HDCF% counts only high-danger chances (xG of 0.15 or more). IPP is the share of his team's 5v5 goals while he was on the ice that he scored or assisted on. Relative stats compare him with his team when he was off the ice. Goals above expected and ixG/60 use his own shots at all strengths. PDO and OZS% describe luck and deployment, so their bars are grey.

Play styleScoring winger

Trait percentiles vs. NHL wingers · 2025-26

Marchenko is a pure offensive talent who stretches defenses with exceptional speed and generates heavy volume from his shot. He excels as a shooter and playmaker but offers little value in pursuit and defensive work.

High-octane scorerSpeed threatShot-heavy

Shooting volume: 91
Playmaking: 75
Zone entries(est.): 45
Forechecking: 31
Physicality: 29
Defensive impact: 13
Puck management: 43
Speed: 96

Where he shoots from

Slot 34% · Mid-range 53% · Perimeter 13%(334 unblocked shots)

Strengths

Elite speed (96th percentile) creates separation for chances
Prolific shooting volume (91st percentile) produces constant offense
Strong playmaking (75th percentile) keeps plays alive

Watch-outs

Weak forechecking (31st percentile) limits puck pursuit
Poor defensive impact (13th percentile) leaves vulnerabilities
Modest rush chances (45th percentile) for his speed level

Similar style: Brandon Hagel (TBL), Dylan Guenther (UTA)

Built from play-by-play, shift data, and NHL EDGE tracking. Zone entries is an estimate (rush chances while he is on the ice) until tracking data is added.

Where his Game Score comes from

2025-26 · 76 GP · goals above average

Season total +4.5 goals, or +0.06 per game.

Even strength offense: +1.3
Even strength defense: -0.6
Power play: +0.6
Penalty kill: +0.1
Finishing: +1.3
Playmaking: +1.6
Penalties: +0.2

Game Score adds up a player's impact in goals compared with an average player given the same ice time: his share of expected goals for and against at even strength, on the power play, and on the penalty kill, plus finishing (goals minus expected goals), primary assists, penalties drawn and taken, and faceoffs. Goalies are measured by goals saved above expected.

By season

Regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	TOI/GP	FO%	GS/GP
2026-27	TOR	2	0	1	1	0	7	19:12	—	-0.65
2025-26	CBJ	76	27	40	67	+7	218	18:57	—	+0.06
2024-25	CBJ	79	31	43	74	+29	207	18:35	—	+0.20
2023-24	CBJ	78	23	19	42	-5	193	16:25	32.9%	+0.01
2022-23	CBJ	59	21	4	25	-23	131	16:11	—	+0.02

Sentiment & chatter

Fans

—

Beat writers

—

Media

—

Fan, beat writer, and media scores, the 14-day trade chatter chart, and the latest mentions appear once sentiment scoring is switched on. Mentions are already being collected.

Age curve

NHL forwards · production index

202937

At 26, forwards typically produce 98% of their peak (age 24).

From 24 seasons of NHL results, adjusted for league scoring and save percentage in each era. Shaded bars are the seasons left on his contract.

Skating · NHL EDGE

2026-27, as of Oct 2

Top speed: 22.1 mph; 92nd pct
20+ mph bursts: 6
Hardest shot: 81.5 mph; 83rd pct
Distance: 6.2 mi
OZ time: 47.9%; 83rd pct
DZ time: 35.7%