PuckSleuth
48

New York Islanders · Defense · Shoots L

Matthew Schaefer

Age 19 · 6'3" · 193 lb · Born in Hamilton, CAN

Cap hit

$975K

0.9% of $104M cap

Term

2 yrs

Through 2027-28, then RFA

Clause

None

Surplus value

+$7.979M

vs. $8.954M market estimate

Contract details from our records; public announcement not yet matched

2026-27 regular season

GP

1

Goals

0

0.0% shooting

Assists

0

0 primary

Points

0

0.00 per game

TOI/GP

27:45

PP 6:18 · PK 0:00

xGF%

63.2

5v5, +13.1 vs. last yr

Game Score

-0.39

per game, goals above average

Faceoff %

—

Plus/minus

0

Blocks 1 · Hits 0

Game log

Last 5 games · NHL API

GameGASOGHITBLKTOIPPPKFOOZS%GVTK+/-GS
Sep 30
@ TOR · L 2-1
0030127:456:180:00—25200-0.39
Apr 14
vs CAR · L 2-1
0050024:132:580:51—7130-1-0.41
Apr 12
vs MTL · L 4-1
0040228:013:170:00—6011-2-0.47
Apr 11
vs OTT · L 3-0
0040124:567:101:07—67000-0.21
Apr 9
vs TOR · W 5-3
1030224:504:510:00—7521+1+1.37

GS = our Game Score, goals above average. FO = faceoffs won-lost. OZS% = share of his 5v5 offensive and defensive zone faceoff starts that were in the offensive zone. GV/TK = giveaways/takeaways.

Advanced metrics

5v5 unless noted · 2025-26 · 1,492 min · percentile vs. NHL defensemen

xGF%50.1%

58th percentile

Relative xGF%+4.0

88th percentile

HDCF%47.1%

37th percentile

CF%49.9%

57th percentile

Relative CF%+1.5

71st percentile

FF%50.4%

63rd percentile

GF%55.1%

77th percentile

CF/6060.2

74th percentile

CA/6060.3

31st percentile

ixG/600.63

98th percentile

Goals above expected+7.2

99th percentile

IPP41.4%

76th percentile

PDO101.0

65th percentile

OZS%50.1%

65th percentile

xGF% is his team's share of 5v5 expected goals while he was on the ice, from our own expected goals model; HDCF% counts only high-danger chances (xG of 0.15 or more). IPP is the share of his team's 5v5 goals while he was on the ice that he scored or assisted on. Relative stats compare him with his team when he was off the ice. Goals above expected and ixG/60 use his own shots at all strengths. PDO and OZS% describe luck and deployment, so their bars are grey.

Play styleElite offensive defenseman

Trait percentiles vs. NHL defensemen · 2025-26

Schaefer is an electric skater with tremendous shot volume and puck skills who plays a finesse-oriented, perimeter-focused game. He generates chances through elite speed and hands rather than physical play or aggressive forechecking, leaning on his scoring touch and passing range to drive offense.

High-volume shooterSmooth skaterPerimeter play
Shooting volume
95
Playmaking
80
Zone entries(est.)
34
Forechecking
27
Physicality
10
Defensive impact
54
Puck management
87
Speed
97

Where he shoots from

Slot 14% · Mid-range 34% · Perimeter 52%(306 unblocked shots)

Strengths

  • Elite speed (97th percentile) enables him to create opportunities and transition the puck with ease
  • Exceptional shot volume (95th percentile) paired with strong puck management (87th percentile) makes him dangerous from the perimeter and point
  • High playmaking ability (80th percentile) allows him to orchestrate offense and pick out open teammates

Watch-outs

  • Forechecking (27th percentile) suggests he doesn't engage heavily in the offensive zone to force turnovers
  • Limited physicality (10th percentile) means he won't establish presence through contact or win puck battles
  • Modest zone entry rate (34th percentile) indicates he doesn't create numerous rush chances despite his speed

Similar style: Brock Faber (MIN), Jake Sanderson (OTT)

Built from play-by-play, shift data, and NHL EDGE tracking. Zone entries is an estimate (rush chances while he is on the ice) until tracking data is added.

Where his Game Score comes from

2025-26 · 82 GP · goals above average

Season total +12.3 goals, or +0.15 per game.

Even strength offense
+1.0
Even strength defense
-0.9
Power play
-0.2
Penalty kill
-0.1
Finishing
+7.3
Playmaking
+1.8
Penalties
+3.4

Game Score adds up a player's impact in goals compared with an average player given the same ice time: his share of expected goals for and against at even strength, on the power play, and on the penalty kill, plus finishing (goals minus expected goals), primary assists, penalties drawn and taken, and faceoffs. Goalies are measured by goals saved above expected.

By season

Regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/-SOGTOI/GPFO%GS/GP
2026-27NYI10000327:45—-0.39
2025-26NYI82233659+1322224:41—+0.15

Sentiment & chatter

Fans

—

Beat writers

—

Media

—

Fan, beat writer, and media scores, the 14-day trade chatter chart, and the latest mentions appear once sentiment scoring is switched on. Mentions are already being collected.

Age curve

NHL defensemen · production index

202937

At 19, defensemen typically produce 90% of their peak (age 24). His contract runs through age 20, when the typical level is 94%.

From 24 seasons of NHL results, adjusted for league scoring and save percentage in each era. Shaded bars are the seasons left on his contract.

Skating · NHL EDGE

2026-27, as of Oct 2

Top speed
23.0 mph
100th pct
20+ mph bursts
9
Hardest shot
87.8 mph
86th pct
Distance
4.3 mi
OZ time
53.3%
98th pct
DZ time
31.9%