PuckSleuth
73

Buffalo Sabres · Defense · Shoots R

Zach Metsa

Age 27 · 5'9" · 201 lb · Born in Delafield, USA

Cap hit

$850K

0.8% of $104M cap

Term

1 yr

Through 2026-27, then UFA

Clause

None

Surplus value

+$2.675M

vs. $3.525M market estimate

Contract details from our records; public announcement not yet matched

2026-27 regular season

GP

1

Goals

0

Assists

0

0 primary

Points

0

0.00 per game

TOI/GP

12:54

PP 0:00 · PK 1:05

xGF%

43.7

5v5, -5.4 vs. last yr

Game Score

-0.08

per game, goals above average

Faceoff %

—

Plus/minus

-1

Blocks 2 · Hits 0

Game log

Last 5 games · NHL API

GameGASOGHITBLKTOIPPPKFOOZS%GVTK+/-GS
Oct 1
@ CBJ · L 6-3
0000212:540:001:05—10010-1-0.08
May 18
vs MTL · OTL 3-2
000003:250:000:00—0000-0.03
May 16
@ MTL · W 8-3
1010112:190:330:17—000-1+0.86
Apr 15
vs DAL · OTL 4-3
0000114:431:281:03—6711-1-0.04
Apr 9
vs CBJ · W 5-0
0000019:260:025:12—50000-0.00

GS = our Game Score, goals above average. FO = faceoffs won-lost. OZS% = share of his 5v5 offensive and defensive zone faceoff starts that were in the offensive zone. GV/TK = giveaways/takeaways.

Advanced metrics

5v5 unless noted · 2025-26 · 439 min · percentile vs. NHL defensemen

xGF%49.0%

46th percentile

Relative xGF%-2.1

34th percentile

HDCF%57.9%

88th percentile

CF%46.4%

23rd percentile

Relative CF%-2.8

25th percentile

FF%46.7%

25th percentile

GF%75.0%

99th percentile

CF/6053.5

32nd percentile

CA/6061.8

19th percentile

ixG/600.20

47th percentile

Goals above expected+0.6

61st percentile

IPP25.0%

14th percentile

PDO108.8

99th percentile

OZS%47.7%

53rd percentile

xGF% is his team's share of 5v5 expected goals while he was on the ice, from our own expected goals model; HDCF% counts only high-danger chances (xG of 0.15 or more). IPP is the share of his team's 5v5 goals while he was on the ice that he scored or assisted on. Relative stats compare him with his team when he was off the ice. Goals above expected and ixG/60 use his own shots at all strengths. PDO and OZS% describe luck and deployment, so their bars are grey.

Play styleDefensive rush specialist

Trait percentiles vs. NHL defensemen · 2025-26

Metsa is a defensive defenseman who generates chances through aggressive forechecking and carries the puck into the zone with unusual skill for his position. He plays a low-event style focused on defense and pressure rather than offensive generation.

Rush entry threatDefensive mindedAggressive forechecking
Shooting volume
21
Playmaking
0
Zone entries(est.)
85
Forechecking
70
Physicality
11
Defensive impact
72
Puck management
16
Speed
22

Where he shoots from

Slot 11% · Mid-range 26% · Perimeter 63%(35 unblocked shots)

Strengths

  • Elite at pushing the puck into the zone via rush chances (85th percentile)
  • Strong defensive impact and presence when on ice (72nd percentile)
  • Active and intense on the forecheck (70th percentile)

Watch-outs

  • Virtually no playmaking ability from the back end (0th percentile)
  • Rarely shoots the puck or contributes offense (21st percentile shooting volume)
  • Limited physical engagement for a defenseman (11th percentile physicality)

Similar style: Dennis Cholowski, Dmitry Kulikov (FLA)

Built from play-by-play, shift data, and NHL EDGE tracking. Zone entries is an estimate (rush chances while he is on the ice) until tracking data is added.

Where his Game Score comes from

2025-26 · 43 GP · goals above average

Season total -1.0 goals, or -0.02 per game.

Even strength offense
-0.2
Penalty kill
+0.2
Finishing
+0.6
Playmaking
-1.6

Game Score adds up a player's impact in goals compared with an average player given the same ice time: his share of expected goals for and against at even strength, on the power play, and on the penalty kill, plus finishing (goals minus expected goals), primary assists, penalties drawn and taken, and faceoffs. Goalies are measured by goals saved above expected.

By season

Regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/-SOGTOI/GPFO%GS/GP
2026-27BUF1000-1012:54—-0.08
2025-26BUF43246+162410:58—-0.02

Sentiment & chatter

Fans

—

Beat writers

—

Media

—

Fan, beat writer, and media scores, the 14-day trade chatter chart, and the latest mentions appear once sentiment scoring is switched on. Mentions are already being collected.

Age curve

NHL defensemen · production index

202937

At 27, defensemen typically produce 97% of their peak (age 24).

From 24 seasons of NHL results, adjusted for league scoring and save percentage in each era. Shaded bars are the seasons left on his contract.

Skating · NHL EDGE

2025-26, as of Oct 2

Top speed
21.1 mph
28th pct
20+ mph bursts
9
Hardest shot
92.0 mph
59th pct
Distance
67.6 mi
OZ time
40.7%
34th pct
DZ time
40.2%