PuckSleuth
Morgan Rielly44

Toronto Maple Leafs · Defense · Shoots L

Morgan Rielly

Age 32 · 6'1" · 224 lb · Born in Vancouver, CAN

Cap hit

$7.5M

7.2% of $104M cap

Term

4 yrs

Through 2029-30, then UFA

Clause

None

Surplus value

+$68K

vs. $7.568M market estimate

Confirmed by the public signing announcement · source

2026-27 regular season

GP

2

Goals

0

0.0% shooting

Assists

2

1 primary

Points

2

1.00 per game

TOI/GP

20:40

PP 2:27 · PK 1:14

xGF%

57.9

5v5, +11.3 vs. last yr

Game Score

+0.65

per game

Faceoff %

—

Plus/minus

-1

Blocks 1 · Hits 2

Game log

Last 5 games · NHL API

GameGASOGHITBLKTOIPPPKFOOZS%GVTK+/-GS
Sep 30
vs NYI · W 2-1
0110119:493:180:50—33110+0.64
Sep 29
vs MTL · L 3-2
0112021:301:361:38—6710-1+0.67
Apr 15
@ OTT · L 3-1
0011120:031:320:55—71200+0.24
Apr 13
vs DAL · L 6-5
0010117:570:121:30—3310-1-0.35
Apr 11
vs FLA · L 6-2
0012220:130:000:56—7110-2+0.04

GS = our Game Score (credit for everything he did; goals and assists count most). FO = faceoffs won-lost. OZS% = share of his 5v5 offensive and defensive zone faceoff starts that were in the offensive zone. GV/TK = giveaways/takeaways.

Advanced metrics

5v5 unless noted · 2025-26 · 1,307 min · percentile vs. NHL defensemen

xGF%46.6%

28th percentile

Relative xGF%+1.6

68th percentile

HDCF%47.4%

39th percentile

CF%48.0%

38th percentile

Relative CF%+4.7

92nd percentile

FF%47.8%

33rd percentile

GF%46.2%

34th percentile

CF/6059.4

72nd percentile

CA/6064.3

8th percentile

ixG/600.36

87th percentile

Goals above expected+3.1

90th percentile

IPP38.8%

69th percentile

PDO100.2

54th percentile

OZS%67.1%

97th percentile

xGF% is his team's share of 5v5 expected goals while he was on the ice, from our own expected goals model; HDCF% counts only high-danger chances (xG of 0.15 or more). IPP is the share of his team's 5v5 goals while he was on the ice that he scored or assisted on. Relative stats compare him with his team when he was off the ice. Goals above expected and ixG/60 use his own shots at all strengths. PDO and OZS% describe luck and deployment, so their bars are grey.

Play styleOffensive rushing defenseman

Trait percentiles vs. NHL defensemen · 2025-26

Rielly generates offense through high shooting volume and elite speed to create rush chances, but he plays a perimeter-heavy style and struggles to limit scoring chances against. His forechecking effort doesn't fully compensate for below-average defensive positioning and physicality.

Rush creatorHigh volume shooterPerimeter focused
Shooting volume
88
Playmaking
59
Zone entries(est.)
76
Forechecking
70
Physicality
28
Defensive impact
17
Puck management
45
Speed
86

Where he shoots from

Slot 11% · Mid-range 35% · Perimeter 54%(221 unblocked shots)

Strengths

  • Elite speed at 86th percentile fuels transition chances and offensive entries
  • High shot volume at 88th percentile drives offensive pressure from the blue line
  • Strong rush chance creation at 76th percentile creates odd-man opportunities

Watch-outs

  • Defensive impact at 17th percentile shows difficulty limiting opponent scoring chances
  • Low physicality at 28th percentile limits ability to win battles and protect space
  • Perimeter shot distribution at 54% indicates reluctance to drive net-front chances

Similar style: Brandon Montour (SEA), Mikhail Sergachev (UTA)

Built from play-by-play, shift data, and NHL EDGE tracking. Zone entries is an estimate (rush chances while he is on the ice) until tracking data is added.

Where his Game Score comes from

2025-26 · 78 GP

Season total +34.3, or +0.44 per game.

Scoring
+25.5
Shooting
+10.6
5-on-5 goals
-1.6
Defense
-1.8
Penalty kill
-0.3
Physical play
+6.4
Puck battles
-3.3
Penalties
-1.1

Game Score gives credit for everything a player does in a game. Goals (1.0) and assists (0.7 primary, 0.5 secondary) count most; shots, blocks, hits, takeaways, penalties drawn, faceoff wins, killing penalties, and holding down the other team's chances add to it. Only mistakes subtract: goals against at 5-on-5, giveaways, penalties taken, faceoff losses, and allowing more chances than an average player would. A player who is there to defend or kill penalties is not marked down for not scoring. Goalies are measured by goals saved above expected.

Career stats

From the NHL's player records

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/-PIMPPGPPPSHGGWGSOGS%TOIFO%
2016-17Toronto Maple Leafs6145+121300166.326:53—
2017-18Toronto Maple Leafs7055-24010090.020:49—
2018-19Toronto Maple Leafs7145000100263.925:05—
2019-20Toronto Maple Leafs5101-120000175.928:22—
2020-21Toronto Maple Leafs7123+300101185.625:48—
2021-22Toronto Maple Leafs733601712001618.822:35—
2022-23Toronto Maple Leafs114812+11601012416.724:09—
2023-24Toronto Maple Leafs7033+200000170.024:50—
2024-25Toronto Maple Leafs13437-2401001822.221:42—
Career9 seasons70153247+1235210021619.324:04—

Seasons traded mid-year show one row per team.

Usage

Last game: vs NYI, Sep 30

Pair 1 with Darren Raddysh (12:59 together at 5-on-5) · PP2

From the NHL's shift chart.

Latest news

Headlines from news outlets and team blogs

Sentiment & chatter

Fans

—

Beat writers

—

Media

—

Fan, beat writer, and media scores, the 14-day trade chatter chart, and the latest mentions appear once sentiment scoring is switched on. Mentions are already being collected.

Recent Game Scores

Last 10 games · goals above average

Average +0.51 per game over these 10.

Skating · NHL EDGE

2026-27, as of Oct 2

Top speed
19.4 mph
38th pct
20+ mph bursts
0
Hardest shot
41.8 mph
5th pct
Distance
5.8 mi
OZ time
44.2%
73rd pct
DZ time
37.9%

Age curve

NHL defensemen · production index

202937

At 32, defensemen typically produce 81% of their peak (age 24). His contract runs through age 35, when the typical level is 67%.

From 24 seasons of NHL results, adjusted for league scoring and save percentage in each era. Shaded bars are the seasons left on his contract.

Contract by season

4 seasons left

SeasonTeamCap hit% of cap
2026-27TOR$7.5M7.2%
2027-28TOR$7.5M6.6%
2028-29TOR$7.5M—
2029-30TOR$7.5M—

UFA after 2029-30. $30M in cap hits left. % of cap uses each season's ceiling where the league has set one ($104M this season, $113.5M in 2027-28).